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| II. DEMOGRAPHICS AND BASE STUDIES LOCAL HISTORY, ECONOMY AND GROWTH Fredericksburg was settled in 1846 by a group of German immigrants led by John O. Meusebach (Baron Ottfried Hans von Meusebach). The community was named after Prince Frederick of Prussia. The early frontier settlement enjoyed lasting peace with the Comanches through the Meusebach-Comanche Treaty of 1847. The original Townsite was built at the confluence of two local tributaries of the Pedernales River about 79 miles west of Austin and 71 miles northwest of San Antonio. Since 1846, the city has grown beyond the confines of Baron’s and Town Creeks. Commercial and industrial development first followed the railroad to the south; more recently it has followed the highway to the east and west. Construction of the Airport, the Fairgrounds and Lady Bird Johnson Park occurred southwest of the City center. Residential development has been strong in the central City even as surrounding land has been subdivided. The most recent residential development has been to the north and into some of the hills surrounding the city. Fredericksburg is the seat of Gillespie County. Many buildings built in traditional German styles remain and comprise a portion of Fredericksburg’s National Historic District. German is still spoken; and old customs are regularly observed, as evidenced by local festivals such as Easter Fires, Schuetzenfests (marksmanship tournaments), Oktoberfest, Kristkindl Markt, and Kinderfest. Visitors are attracted by scenic beauty, European atmosphere, historic landmarks, excellent fall and winter hunting, and famous peaches. Fredericksburg is also the birthplace of Fleet Admiral Chester W. Nimitz, Commander in Chief of the Pacific Fleet during World War II, and home of the Nimitz Museum. Fredericksburg’s economy relies on tourism and agriculture. In August 1996, the city unemployment rate was 1.4%. The city's five banks have deposits totaling 500 million dollars. The combined state and local sales tax is 8.25%, with 1.5% going to the City and 0.5% to the County. The combined ad valorem tax rate is 1.7694 per $100 of appraised value, with 0.3013 going to the City, 0.2650 to the County, 1.1899 to the school district, and 0.0132 going to other taxing entities. The City covers 3,178 acres, and the one-mile Extra-Territorial Jurisdiction (ETJ) covers another 14,625 for a total of 17,803 acres. Activity is still concentrated between the two creeks. The Central Business District, the Historic District, the County Courthouse, the City Hall and Municipal Complex, and the Marktplatz (Market Square) are all located within this area. Map II-1 shows Fredericksburg's location within the state. The 1967 Comprehensive Plan divided Fredericksburg into seven Community Statistical Areas, "as a basis for evaluating the various requirements and features of Fredericksburg." The 1985 Plan expanded these areas to reflect growth, and it renamed them Neighborhood Statistical Areas. Comprehensive Plan ’96 continues this tradition, but it defines the areas differently. The city and its surroundings were divided into eleven (11) sub-areas whose boundaries follow U.S. Census Block Groups (Map II-2). Block Groups are subdivisions of Tracts, and they are the smallest geographical area for which U.S. Census data are available. Boundaries in Fredericksburg are based on major roadways and water features (Map II-3). Some of the planning areas stretch beyond the current ETJ as they follow Block Group boundaries; this over-extension allows greater insight into the population surrounding the city. Division of the city into planning areas will allow better understanding of distinct neighborhoods. This increased level of detail will help the City to determine an area's specific needs and to serve them directly. Table II-1 describes the general boundaries for each of the eleven planning areas. TABLE II-1 City of Fredericksburg, Texas PLANNING AREA BOUNDARIES
Map II-1 Texas Gillespie County FRD MAP II-2 City of Fredericksburg City Limits, ETJ
MAP II-3 Planning Areas
U.S. CENSUS According to the 1990 United States Census, the City of Fredericksburg had a total population of 6,934--an increase of 522 persons since 1980. This change represents an 8.14% climb over ten years or 0.814% annually. Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 86.05% of the population in the city; Hispanics of all races comprised 13.89%; and American Indians, Eskimos and Aleuts made up 0.06% of the total (Table II-2). Persons of retirement-age account for a large part of Fredericksburg’s population. Nearly one in three people in Fredericksburg is 65 or older. Since 1960, the number of people age 65 or over has increased more than 150%. This segment of the population has grown from 19.29% of the total population in 1960 to 32.04% in 1990 (Table II-3). The median age in Fredericksburg was 45.9 years in 1990. The population has been aging since 1960 when the median age was 39.6 years. Fredericksburg’s 1990 median age is also higher than the averages for all larger areas (Table II-4). Table II-5 shows 1990 population for each of the 11 planning areas. The total population of all of these areas exceeds the population of the City of Fredericksburg, because these areas extend beyond the city limits. Planning areas are described in the previous section. These statistics provide more detailed information than general city-wide numbers. Specific data about each neighborhood will aid in the planning effort (Table II-6 and Table II-7). TABLE II-2 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1990 ETHNIC MIX
Source: US Census, 1990.
TABLE II-3 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1990 AGE DISTRIBUTION
Source: US Census, 1990 .TABLE II-4 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1990 AGE COMPARISONS
Source: US Census, 1990 .
TABLE II-5 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1990 POPULATION by PLANNING AREA
Source: US Census, 1990.
TABLE II-6 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1990 ETHNIC MIX by PLANNING AREA
Source: US Census, 1990. TABLE II-7 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1990 MEDIAN AGE and HOUSEHOLD SIZE by PLANNING AREA
Source: US Census, 1990.
CURRENT POPULATION ESTIMATES Accurate estimates of the current population can be made by applying known data to established trends. Several methods were used to estimate the 1995 population of Fredericksburg. Table II-8 provides historical population data and an estimate for 1995 population for the incorporated area. This estimate is within the range established by the various methodologies discussed below. TABLE II-8 City of Fredericksburg, Texas HISTORIC POPULATION DATA and 1995 ESTIMATE
Source: US Census. * = Hankamer Consulting Estimate, 1996.
Figure II-1 shows city and county trends from 1930 to 1990. The average annual growth rate between 1930 and 1990 in the City of Fredericksburg was 1.09%. Adding five years of growth at this rate to the 1990 population of 6,934 results in an estimate of 7,311 for 1995. The total number of residential electric meters within the City Limits as of September 1995 was 3,041. By applying the average household size of 2.44 persons from the 1990 US Census, the estimated 1995 population is 7,420 people. Between 1990 and 1995, 209 additional building permits were approved. This increase results in a total of 3,051 households for 1995. Applying the household size of 2.44 results in an estimated 1995 population of 7,444. The Texas State Data Center estimates Gillespie County’s 1995 population at 18,644. In 1990, Fredericksburg’s population accounted for 40.3% of Gillespie County’s population. By applying the city ratio to the county total, the estimated 1995 population is 7,514 people. Figure II-1 Fredericksburg Population 1930-1990 The high and low extremes are based on historic trends that may have changed between 1990 and 1995. The county ratio method does not take specific local conditions into account. The number of electric meters provides an accurate count of households; but the average number of persons per housing unit may have changed since 1990. In Fredericksburg, the number of residential building permits issued does accurately reflect the number of households added. Few, if any, permitted buildings are not built. Therefore, 7,420 is the most reasonable population estimate. Strategic Mapping, Inc., (SMI) has prepared 1995 estimates of population and household size by census tract and block group. Table II-9 shows current population estimates for the eleven planning areas. These estimates are helpful for understanding neighborhood-level demographics (Table II-10 and Table II-11). The following explanation of how these estimates were made is reprinted from SMI's Methodology Statement :
POPULATION PROJECTIONS Projecting the future population of a city is important to the planning effort. However, it is important to note that projections are based on assumptions and trends which are subject to change. For that reason, projections should be evaluated and revised frequently and should not be considered "predictions" of the future. For the past 65 years, Fredericksburg has experienced steady growth. The population has grown from 2,416 in 1930 to an estimated 7,420 in 1995 (see Table II-8). This growth represents 207.2% over 65 years or 3.19% annually. Several methods have been used to determine future population for the City of Fredericksburg. TABLE II-9 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1995 POPULATION ESTIMATES by PLANNING AREA
Source: Strategic Mapping, Inc., 1995.
TABLE II-10 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1995 ETHNIC MIX ESTIMATES by PLANNING AREA
Source: Strategic Mapping, Inc., 1995. TABLE II-11 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 1995 MEDIAN AGE and HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES by PLANNING AREA
Source: Strategic Mapping, Inc., 1995.
One method tracks trends in building permits and household size (Figure II-2). The assumed number of new housing units is added to the current number and the total is multiplied by an appropriate household size. Two separate building trends and two different household size trends are forecast in Fredericksburg. The first building trend assumes that the average of about 50 housing units will continue to be built each year; this is the "slow" trend (Figure II-2). The "fast" building trend assumes the rate of increase between 1989 and 1995 will continue (Figure II-3). The first household size trend fits a straight line to the data from 1950 to 1990; this line shows a decrease in household size and reflects a "retiree" trend; the "family" trend fits an upward curve to the same household size data (Figure II-4). Four distinctly different projections result from this approach (Table II-12 and Figure II-5). TABLE II-12 City of Fredericksburg, Texas POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Source: Hankamer Consulting, 1996.
For the fifth projection method, linear regression fits a straight trend line to the US Census data and the current estimate. Extrapolating that straight line from 1995 produces a population of 9,233 for Fredericksburg in the year 2020, which is in the population projection range from 8,103 to 15,524 generated by the other four methods. These projections assume a steady rate of population growth, build-out, and annexation. A large scale residential development or a large annexation would likely have an impact on population FIGURE II-2 & 3 FIGURE II-4 FIGURE II-5 City of Fredericksburg, Texas POPULATION PROJECTIONS beyond the scope of these projections. A major retirement community, for example, would influence the population greatly. Currently, there are approximately 1,000 lots planned and in various stages of the subdivision process around the city. How quickly these lots develop depends on the local building capacity and absorption rate. Strategic Mapping, Inc. has made population projections for the year 2000 only. Table II-13 and Map II-4 show population projections for the year 2000 for the 11 planning areas. Table II-14 and Map II-5 show how the ethnic mix will look in the year 2000. Finally, Table II-15, Map II-6, and Map II-7 show median age and household size in 2000.
TABLE II-13 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 2000 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY PLANNING AREA
Source: Strategic Mapping, Inc., 1995. MAP II-4 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR 2000
TABLE II-14 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 2000 ETHNIC MIX PROJECTIONS by PLANNING AREA
Source: Strategic Mapping, Inc., 1995.
MAP II-5 ETHNICITY IN 2000
TABLE II-15 City of Fredericksburg, Texas 2000 MEDIAN AGE and HOUSEHOLD SIZE PROJECTIONS by PLANNING AREA
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